May be the government will also see sense about that other unnecessary 'harmonisation' (one should really use the word 'standardisation') issue - enforced metrication.

There's only one thing wrong with the analysis below - it will *never* be right for Britain to join the euro:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BBCi Website today, 28 April


Blair signals no to joining euro

Tony Blair says Britain must keep its "options open" on the euro

Tony Blair has suggested he would not try to take Britain into the euro during the next Parliament if Labour win the general election.

The economics were not right for him to recommend a "yes" vote in a referendum, and were unlikely to change, he said.

"If the economics aren't right... you don't do it," Mr Blair told Sky News.

The Tories said Labour's lack of clarity was "bad for Britain". The Lib Dems said it was odd the prime minister was pre-judging ongoing economic tests.

When asked whether he planned to hold a referendum on joining the euro, Mr Blair said: "At the moment it doesn't look very likely, does it, because the economics aren't in the right place.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"If the economics aren't right, if it won't help your country economically, you don't do it."

None of us has the slightest idea whether the prime minister is ruling it out or not ruling it out

Oliver Letwin,
Shadow Chancellor

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


What's happened to Europe?

And he added that it did not seem likely that the economics were "going to change dramatically".

"Now, at the moment there is no part of business and industry clamouring to say we need this for our economy, so it doesn't look very likely," he said.

"On the other hand, things can always change and the sensible thing to do is keep your options open."

At Labour's morning news conference on Thursday, Mr Blair sought to clarify the comments saying: "Politically the case for going in is strong - economically we have to meet the tests."

Mr Blair's comments follow a speech earlier in the week in which Chancellor Gordon Brown stressed the Treasury's five economic tests must be met before the government would put the issue to voters.

Shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that people did not know whether under a Labour government "they would or wouldn't see the euro".

"None of us has the slightest idea whether the prime minister is ruling it out or not ruling it out. And that's bad for Britain. It's bad for our economy. It's bad for our business."

Five tests

Under a Tory government, however, it was clear that Britain would not join the euro, he said.

This was because the Conservatives believed "the Bank of England was the right set of people to set interest rates for this country" and thus opposed the euro.

Liberal Democrat Chairman Matthew Taylor said his party had understood that the Chancellor was "carefully analysing five economic tests and reporting to Parliament regularly" on the issue.

"It is odd for the prime minister to prejudge this ongoing process on a television programme.

"Britain's decision whether or not to join the euro is one of the most important decisions this country could take, and should be a matter for the British public in a referendum."

The Lib Dems advocate joining the euro subject to the right economic conditions and a referendum of the British people.

UK Independence Party leader Roger Knapman said the euro currency was now a "political risk" and that US banks were advising people borrowing in euros to pay higher interest rates.

"We don't wish our neighbours any harm economically but it looks as though those who've joined the euro are going to be in serious trouble before we're much older," he said.

Tony Bennett wrote

<<
Blair signals no to joining euro
>>

The headlines in today's Daily Telegraph read "Blair: I am not a liar".

If Tony BLair always tells the truth, then one would expect him to say that he is not a liar. Likewise, if he is a habitual liar, then he would lie about the matter and would again say that he is not a liar.

In view of this I do not read anything into Tony Blair's comments about the EUro.

Just because one statement he makes is ambiguous doesn't mean that they all are.

martin:
<< If Tony BLair always tells the truth, then one would expect him to say that he is not a liar. Likewise, if he is a habitual liar, then he would lie about the matter and would again say that he is not a liar.>>

On the other hand, if he said "I am a liar", would he be telling the truth?

The euro does not need the UK. It is moving east and that is more important to the EU. Also, the Iranians will begin to sell oil in euros from their own bourse starting next March. The pound economy is starting to crumble along with the dollar. High interest rates in the UK needed to keep the pound strong are having a negative effect on the UK economy.

After the euro gains increased status in the international economy between 2006 and 2010, the UK will beg the EU for euro assension, but then under EU not UK terms. Better for the EU that the UK not join unitl the EU determines the time.

re (Erin NoBran): "After the euro gains increased status in the international economy between 2006 and 2010, the UK will beg the E.U. for euro assension..."


REPLY: Could I have have a tenner on that, please?

Tony Bennett
<< REPLY: Could I have have a tenner on that, please?>>

So you are human after all.
Would you support a Casino for Harlow? We are fed up with travelling to Luton.

Btw: We promise not to drink at a Harlow Casino.

"""REPLY: Could I have have a tenner on that, please?"""

You won't be around to pay me the 10 € when you lose!

other harmonisation?

Metrication has nothing to do with EU harmonisation. It was decided to go metric long before the common market.

As for you statement re. it would "never" be right for Britain to join the euro.

How do you know? Your objection to the euro is an irrational non-economic one.

re (Andy): "How do you know? Your objection to the euro is an irrational non-economic one".



REPLY: The word 'presumptuous' comes to mind. One of my key reasons for opposing the euro is in fact economic. Look what has happened to the eurozone countries, compared with those in Europe outside the eurozone, since they set up the single currency and perhaps you will see why [clue: German unemployment up to 5 million; French unemployment up to 3 million].

The single currency adopted by France, Switzerland and Italy in the 1870s was a failure and had to be abandoned.

Name me a single currency covering more than one country which has been sucessful.

Andy, stop to think about it, and you will soon realise that euro-enthusiasts are the dogmatic - even irrational - ones; those who favour keeping the pound have history and pragmatic economics on their side.

Tony Blair's belated realisation that the euro makes no economic sense either now or well into the future is welcome, but has been forced on him by the economic facts.

In short, we don't need the euro

Tony Bennett:
"The word 'presumptuous' comes to mind. One of my key reasons for opposing the euro is in fact economic. Look what has happened to the eurozone countries, compared with those in Europe outside the eurozone, since they set up the single currency and perhaps you will see why [clue: German unemployment up to 5 million; French unemployment up to 3 million]."

Stan:
I'd be interested if you could explain the link between those observations Tony. How does the Euro bring about high unemployment?

"""I'd be interested if you could explain the link between those observations Tony. How does the Euro bring about high unemployment?"""


It doesn't. The unemployment situation in Germany actually predates the euro. There are a couple of reasons for it.

1.) Much of the high unemployment is concentrated in the former DDR. The former BRD is not experiencing the high unemployment the east is.

2.) The Germans have a fear of spending and are avid savers. Thus they don't stimulate the economy by buying. Businesses don't grow and companies don't hire.

3.) The Germans have not "Americanised" their business culture. that is they still offer high wages and very generous wage and benefit packages. Thus making labour costs high and business is reluctant to hire to many people.

3.) Germany is bound by the Maastrict treaty to keep its deficits within the 3 % limit of GDP, even though France and Germany have exceeded these limits for the past few years, they have to make efforts to keep the debts low. They can not deficit spend their way to 'prosperity" like in the US and UK.

4.) The Germans and French don't have access to unsecured credit like the Americans and British do. With unsecured credit you can buy and spend money you don't have on goods you can't rightfully afford.

There are a multitude of reasons that go much deeper then the euro. The major one being the huge imbalance to the world's economie by the petro-dollar. The euro was not created to unify the currencies of the EU but to challenge the petro-dollar and to give the EU some of the free ride the US gets. The UK doesn't get the free ride, they have to earn investments by having very high interest rates. Rates that are now causing the UK economy to decline. Something deficit spending can not cure.

As long as the US dollar remains the oil currency the situation will not change much. But next year will be a watershed year. The Iranian oil bourse that will compete with NYMEX and IPE will sell oil only in euros. This will divert billions presently used to finance American deficits to buying euro investments. Also, once the EU ceases to be a collection of individual states to a unified state the situation will change.

As you see, the imperialists live in the past not only with measurements but with the way economies and nations evolve.

There'll be lots more and lots more still like this if people on this board can't accept the obvious and see for themselves that the euro is a significant economic disadvantage for those countries that have adopted it:


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Strong euro causes Volkswagen profits to crash

Mark Milner
Thursday May 8, 2003

Guardian

Volkswagen, Europe's biggest car maker, saw profits crash by two-thirds in the first quarter of the year, dragged down by a combination of weak economies, the strengthening euro and the costs of revamping its model line-up.

Wolfsburg-based VW's lacklustre figures came on a bad day for the German economy with news that industrial orders had plunged almost 4% in March while seasonally adjusted unemployment rose in April for the 13th month in succession.

The economic data left German economists and trade unions urging the European Central Bank to cut interest rates at its meeting today to boost German growth.

"There's no point expecting a recovery this year," said one Frankfurt-based analyst.

VW sought to bolster investor confidence by forecasting that it expected to sell more than 5m cars again this year - and that operating profits would recover significantly in the second half of the year.

However, it repeated earlier warnings that it was unlikely to match last year's profits performance when it made €4.76bn (£3.4bn), particularly if the euro remained strong against key currencies - the dollar, sterling and the Chinese renminbi.


_________________________________________________________________________________

CLUE: If your country has adopted the euro, your country can no longer control its external exchange rates nor its bank interest rate - two key economic levers lost at a stroke. The European Central Bank controls your interest rate. You have therefore *lost control* of a key economic lever

If it's so obvious that the Euro is bad news including that for its most enthusiastic proponents (Germany and France) then why did they adopt it?

Are they in the business of committing economic suicide?

Perhaps one should give some thought to those occasions in the UK when the government was severely criticised for mismanaging the economy and not setting exchange rates in the best interests of the country (before they permanently floated the pound). It may be an economic lever but it's been a long time since the UK government used it.

"""If it's so obvious that the Euro is bad news including that for its most enthusiastic proponents (Germany and France) then why did they adopt it?"""


The euro was created to offer the world an alternate to the petro-dollar and to give the EU the same subsidy the US receives from the dollar being an oil currency. The euro is responsible for a huge slide in US growth in the first quarter of this year. The euro has brought attention to the huge unsustainable US deficits by forcing the value of the dollar down and causing investors to flee.

The US stock market is in a tumble as Wall Street is unable to attract investors. Wall Street is so desperate they are pressuring the government to privatize Social Security. The dream is that the millions of citizens will gamble their future nest egg by dumping it in the stock market and forcing it to ralley. The investment of pension plans in the market in the early '90s caused a boom which lasted about 7 years before going bust.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_30-4-2005_pg5_18

LONDON: Oil prices slipped lower on Friday, handing back the previous day’s short-covering gains as traders focused on less encouraging economic growth figures from the United States.



http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid400131?source=This%20is%20Money

THE US economy grew at its slowest rate for two years during the first quarter as the surging price of oil kept consumers' cash in the their pockets.


Official figures showed growth fell to an annualised rate of 3.1%, the weakest rate since the first quarter of 2003 when the US was preparing for the war in Iraq.


http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&localeKey=en_ZA&storyID=8342043
U.S. GROWTH SHOCK

Rising energy prices took their toll on U.S. consumers and businesses in the first quarter, pushing gross domestic product growth down to 3.1 percent in the first quarter from 3.8 percent in the fourth and short of the 3.6 percent analysts expected.

The dollar's losses in Asia reversed a climb in New York, where investors had focused on the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates, which they said outweighed the tepid growth numbers.


The Germans and French have savings and good unemployment benefits to live on when times are hard. The Americans and British don't. Americans don't save, they borrow. Their economy can't afford to have any unemployment as it forces people either not to spend or forces them into greater debt.

As the demand for oil increases beyond ability to produce it, the cost of oil will be high and have a very negative affect on the American economy. Interest rates are already rising in the US which will increase the misery and slow growth even more.

Tony,

Should we blame this on the weak dollar, or maybe slowing growth in the US? Maybe the dollar isn't working and every US state should adopt their own currency. As you said, currency unions don't work. If they don't work in Europe, then they can't work anywhere else either. If one must go they all must go!


General Motors loses $1.1 billion in quarter

General Motors Corp. just finished its worst three-month period in more than a decade, losing $1.1 billion, and spending $3.5 billion out of its savings.

But as Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner works to get the world's largest automaker through its toughest year since the early '90s, one headache he doesn't have is worrying about running out of cash, as Chrysler Corp. did in the late '70s.

The company's automotive business entered the year with $23.3 billion in savings, which is entirely separate from the accounts of GMAC, the automaker's profitable finance business, which lends money to car-buyers, dealers and homeowners.


The first quarter of 2005 took a bite out of GM's cash hoard:

The company spent $3 billion more on the day-to-day running of the business than it brought in.

It also paid $1.3 billion to Fiat. Why? About five years ago, GM bought part of Fiat's automotive business and agreed to buy the rest if Fiat wanted to sell it. But GM later decided that it didn't want to buy Fiat Auto, so it paid off the Italian conglomerate to keep its money-losing car business.

GM also spent or set aside $400 million in buyout packages for thousands of European workers it can't afford to keep.

These expenditures were offset however, by a few pieces of good news, such as a $500 million payment from GMAC to the auto business.

All told, the company ended March with $19.8 billion in cash, again excluding GMAC.

""""Wolfsburg-based VW's lacklustre figures came on a bad day for the German economy with news that industrial orders had plunged almost 4% in March while seasonally adjusted unemployment rose in April for the 13th month in succession.""""


apparantly your article is a fabrication of lies. Doing an internet search on German unemployment for I found that unemployment for April actually dropped.

http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=52&story_id=19571&name=German+unemployment+falls%3CBR%3Ebelow+five+million+in+April

German unemployment falls below five million in April

28 April 2005

BERLIN - German unemployment fell to below the five million mark in April for the first time since labour reform rules, introduced earlier this year, swelled the ranks of the unemployed, the Federal Labour Agency (BA) said on Thursday.

April's unemployment rate stood at 12 percent, down from 12.5 percent in March, a fall that will certainly help to ease some of the pressure on Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder ahead of a crucial state election next month.

While the labour office said unadjusted joblessness dropped 208,000 to 4,968,000, the more market-sensitive adjusted rate fell by 79,000 to 4.889 million. Analysts had expected the adjusted unemployment figure to rise by 10,000 this month.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=abWq0FI6_VkQ&refer=germany

German Unemployment Falls 79,000 in April, SPD Lawmaker Says

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- German unemployment fell for the first time in 15 months, a lawmaker from Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democratic Party said.

The number out of work in Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell by 79,000 in April, adjusted for seasonal swings, lawmaker Klaus Brandner said in a telephone interview today. The Nuremberg- based Federal Labor Agency is due to release the official figures at 9.55 a.m. Economists expected the total to rise 10,000, the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed.

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10001608.shtml

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_793164.html







As for the German economy, it still turns a profut. Germany had a record trade surplus in 2004, not bad for a "stagnant" economy. Why isn't the UK doing better then Germany? What are UK profits? Or does the UK run a trade deficit like the US?

http://www.iht.com/getina/files/243136.html

Germany profits from international division of labor
China, South Korea and eastern Europe celebrate biggest export successes

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Publishing Group Germany | Patrick Welter
FRANKFURT

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Germany is suffering from globalization. Competitive pressure from low-wage countries is keeping the economy in the doldrums. This widely held impression runs counter to actual developments. All the available data indicate that Germany is profiting from its integration into the international division of labor - and is holding its own on world markets despite competitive pressure from eastern Europe and China.

Despite the appreciation of the euro in the past years, German merchandise exports - which do not factor in the value of German services sold abroad - increased by 22 percent in 2004, the World Trade Organization (WTO) announced recently. It confirmed Germany's position of world champion in the export of goods, ahead of the United States and China - even though the figures cited by the WTO exaggerate German exports from a domestic perspective.

Because the WTO measures exports in dollar, the nearly 10 percent appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the greenback is calculated into Germany's export growth rate. In euro terms, German exports rose by 10.4 percent last year - roughly the same as U.S. and Japanese exports, but markedly less than China, which sold 35 percent more goods abroad last year.

This comparison shows that the listed countries, in particular China, profit from international trade. For the first time, China replaced Japan at No. 3 among the world's biggest exporters in dollar terms last year. But at $593 billion, China's goods exports still fall far short of those of the United States, at $819 billion, and Germany, with $915 billion. Incidentally, neither the United States nor China or Japan could rival the European Union if it appeared as a single economic area. According to the WTO, the EU exported goods worth EUR1,203 billion ($1.573 billion) last year.


http://www.rte.ie/business/2005/0118/germany.html

Germany posts record trade surplus in 2004

2005-01-18 15:13

Flying in the face of concerns that the strong euro is hurting German exports, Germany's trade surplus soared to its highest level ever in 2004.

The trade surplus - the balance between what a country exports and what it imports - amounted to €155.6 billion last year, exceeding the previous record of €129.9 billion set in 2003, the federal statistics office, Destatis, calculated in preliminary figures.

The biggest euro zone economy exported goods worth a record €731 billion, 10% more than in 2003, while imports grew by 7.7% to €575.4 billion.


Germany looks therefore set to retain its title 'export champion of the world,' conferred on it by the World Trade Organisation in 2003, amid robust demand for German-made goods, particularly from eastern Europe, Asia and the US.

The data show that fears about the negative economic impact of the strong euro - which makes German goods more expensive than rival products manufactured elsewhere - have so far been exaggerated.

The volume of German exports to other euro zone countries increased by 10.3% and exports to the wider EU were up by 9.8%. Exports to countries that are in the EU, but not the euro zone grew by 8.8%, and exports to other countries around the world, such as the US and Asia expanded by 10.4%, Destatis said.





Tony, how do you explain this contradiction? You claim the German economy is bad (because of the euro), but the evidence proves otherwise! Explain! And if Tony can't or won't, maybe someone can?

To all who read Tony's postings, especially those that try to make the US/UK economy look like a shining star and the EU look like a basket case; it would be in your best interest to verify Tony's findings. You will find most of what he prints either an outright lie, a half-truth, an exaggeration or deliberate deception. Do yourselves a favour....VERIFY.

http://news.google.com/news?q=Ford%20profit&hl=en&lr=&rls=RNWE,RNWE:2004-23,RNWE:en&sa=N&tab=wn

Ford Profit Falls

By TSC Staff
2005-04-20 7:29 EDT


Ford (F:NYSE - commentary - research) posted a drop in first-quarter earnings and guided toward a second-quarter loss as the big American carmakers continue to struggle with weak sales.

Sales Drop, Rising Costs Hit Ford Profit

Apr 20, 2005 — DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. <F.N> on Wednesday posted a 38 percent drop in quarterly earnings, pressured by falling U.S. sales and rising costs, and further cut its North American production to bring down excess inventories.


Ford Profit Down on Falling U.S. Sales
2005-04-20 07:02 ET


DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday posted lower first-quarter earnings due to falling U.S. sales, rising raw material prices and other costs.
The second-largest U.S. automaker said first-quarter profit fell to $1.21 billion, or 60 cents a share, from a profit of $1.95 billion, or 94 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

Wall Street analysts on average expected Ford to earn 38 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.



Oh my God, Tony, what are we going to do? Are Ford's profit losses the fault of the euro too? Or maybe the dollar? Oh it has to be the euro. Let's also blame the euro for AIDS in Africa, tsunamis in Asia, earthquakes, pestilance and disease. Why not even blame it as the root of all terrorism?

Is it an invention of the devil?

I see Error NoBrains is still posting guff!! LOL!

Someone tell him that the French unemployment is going up too, and fewer in that country or Germany now prefer the euro to their real currency.

Keep 'em coming!

I also see Tony is avoiding my responses because he knew he posted lies and hoped no one would call his attention to it.

re (Erin GoBragh): "I also see Tony is avoiding my responses because he knew he posted lies and hoped no one would call his attention to it"


REPLY TO MODERATOR: It devalues this board if we allow this kind of verbal abuse on it. We can have robust debate without stooping to this, surely?

Quit posting lies and nonsense about the EU and no one will call attention to it! You open yourself up to this type of ridicule by insisting on posting what is not true.

Do you always run to your mommy when you can't win battles with facts?

re (Erin GoBragh): "Do you always run to your mommy when you can't win battles with facts?"


REPLY: This board would be better off if people desist from coarse language and accusations like 'liar'. You are tending to prove that you are someone who is prone to dishing out verbal abuse, by continuing to be verbally abusive. Verbal abuse of others is a sign of weakness, not strength.

I have drawn the Moderator's attention to your use of language as I believe he would want to keep this board focussed on the arguments and not be littered with coarse or abusive language

Then don't post lies if you don't want to be called a liar.

This board would be better off if you stopped posting non-related political nonsense that is not true at all. I'm sure the moderator would agree that you have posted very little regarding metrication and a lot of foolishness about the EU and the euro. All of which has been proven false.

Erin!
You have consistantly and continuously used this board as a dumping ground to your fantasies and lies.

It looks ridiculous (from the moderate pro-metrics that post here too) for you to claim such fantasies and then call Tony a liar. And to use his mother (if she is still alive) and my other-half as tactical targets just shows how low you can go. (BTW - my other half doesn't mind, she actually finds you quite funny in a "sad man" sort of way [not my words])

To the BWMA moderator.

My email mentioned what would happen if you allowed NoBrains to post here and I have to say my prediction has come true.

Take a look around, BWMA, where have all the moderate pro-metrics gone? They post less often if at all. And note the lack of posts by some of the younger pro-imperials?

My viewpoint is that Erin should be allowed to post on the "public" board but not on the "inner" boards. That way we can laugh at his obscure views on life but keep the sensible stuff between the pro-metrics and pro-imperials here on the inner boards.

P.S. It was this sort of behaviour that got him banned from the pro-metric USMA site.

What goes around....