Re the Drake Equation: L in the equation at this link is how many years a civilization lasts; 10 years was used in 1961 and justifiably (I think). But I think that L is based on how long before we blow ourselves up for reasons other than the nutcase factor. But regardsless, the equation is very little about science and a whole lot about opinion. But it is still cool to think about.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
Re being wrong
You don't listen very well. I don't know how much more plain it could be that I or anyone could be proven wrong on maybe just about anything. Maybe your listening problem is part of why you appear less than totally in control.

---Al